The Canadian Real Estate Association says its October sales numbers could offer a preview of what is to come in the spring.
CREA reports a surprising 7.7% jump in sales activity for the month, compared to September, with more than 44,000 properties changing hands. Sales rose 30% compared to a year earlier. A fall surge is not unusual although this one is bigger than most.
CREA’s Senior Economist, Shaun Cathcart, credits an increase in new listings as the main driver of sales.
“[T]he increase was more likely related to the surge in new listings we saw in September. There probably won’t be another rush of new supply like that until next spring, and at that point, mortgage rates should be close to their expected lows, as well,” he said.
Cathcart points out that the Bank of Canada’s big, 50 basis-point interest rate cut did not happen until the last week of October.
“October’s strong sales numbers across Canada suggest buyers have been in the market since rates began to fall in early summer, but they were waiting for the right property to come up for sale, which didn’t happen in a big way until September,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair.
The national average home price for October climbed to $696,000, a 6.0% increase from a year ago. CREA’s preferred pricing measure, the National Composite MLS Home Price Index, was down 2.7% from a year earlier. It was virtually flat compared to September with a 0.1% decrease.